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War/GeopoliticalDevelopingUS–Israel war with Iran

Saudi Aramco suspends crude deliveries to India as pipeline repairs begin

Aramco halted shipments to Indian refiners while pivoting exports toward the Persian Gulf, easing immediate price pressure even as the East–West pipeline remains offline.

8 sources analysed
The flags of the United States and Iran meeting at the centre of the frame, lightning bursting where they meet beneath a dark, stormy sky.
Illustration generated with AI. Not a photograph of the conflict.

Quick summary

Saudi Aramco suspended crude deliveries to Indian refineries following the drone attacks that shut down its East–West pipeline, forcing the kingdom to redirect exports toward the Persian Gulf and cancel or defer some cargoes. Brent crude fell below $105 per barrel on Thursday, with multiple outlets reporting settlement prices around $103.17–$104.82, down from the previous day's close near $108–$109, as markets absorbed news of Saudi export pivots and the planned partial restart. The pipeline attack damaged three pumping stations on the 1,200‑kilometre route to Yanbu, according to an industry analysis, and Aramco is proceeding with bypass construction to restore roughly half of capacity within days while full repairs continue over approximately six weeks.

Key points

  • Saudi Aramco suspended crude deliveries to Indian refiners and redirected exports through the Persian Gulf to offset the East–West pipeline closure.
  • Brent crude settled around $103.17–$104.82 per barrel on Thursday, down roughly 4–5% from Wednesday's close near $108–$109.
  • Three pumping stations on the East–West pipeline were damaged in the September 10 drone attacks attributed to Iran-backed militias in Iraq.
  • Aramco is installing bypass piping to restore approximately half of the pipeline's capacity within days, with full operation still targeted in about six weeks.
  • Saudi Arabia is using ship-to-ship transfers near Oman and alternate Gulf routes to stabilize exports under war-time conditions.

How it unfolded

  1. New

    War begins

    The US and Israel launch Operation Epic Fury. Ali Khamenei is killed in the opening strikes.

  2. Changed

    Ceasefire reached, then collapses

    The first attempt to halt the fighting does not hold.

  3. Changed

    Second attempt fails

    A new memorandum of understanding fails to produce a lasting halt to the conflict.

  4. New

    Operation Economic Outcast

    Washington targets more than 60 Iran-linked entities with new sanctions.

  5. New

    Hormuz corridor proposed

    Iran and Oman propose a temporary shipping corridor through the strait, as Qatar also pursues mediation.

  6. ChangedContested

    Strait declared cleared

    CENTCOM announces that Iranian-placed mines have been cleared from the Strait of Hormuz.

  7. New

    US strike on Larak Island

    US forces strike two IRGC rocket-launcher positions, saying they posed an imminent threat to shipping.

  8. New

    Iran responds

    The IRGC confirms casualties, condemns the attack and promises retaliation.

  9. NewContested

    New escalation

    Iran launches retaliatory missiles and drones toward US bases in Jordan and the UAE. Jordan reports intercepting eight missiles.

  10. New

    Economic impact

    Brent crude rises above $90 as markets react to renewed escalation.

  11. New

    Iran appeals for interim deal compliance

    Iran urges the US to comply with what it describes as an interim deal, while Trump threatens further strikes.

  12. New

    US launches new strikes near Hormuz

    The United States launches a new barrage of airstrikes on Iranian targets around the Strait of Hormuz.

  13. New

    Brent crude hits intraday high near $99

    Brent surged to about $99.38 per barrel before settling in the $95–$97 range as markets priced in heightened supply risk.

  14. New

    Iran strikes Kuwait

    Iran launched missiles and drones at Kuwait, expanding Operation Punishment of the Aggressor.

  15. New

    US carries out second round of strikes

    The United States hit Iranian radar, missile and mine-laying infrastructure in a second wave in three days.

  16. New

    Hormuz transits fall to single digits

    Tanker flows through the strait dropped to as few as six vessels on recent days, versus a rolling average near 13.

  17. New

    U.S. strikes Iranian tankers off Kharg Island

    U.S. forces struck three Iranian oil tankers off Kharg Island in response to earlier Revolutionary Guard attacks on U.S. warships.

  18. New

    Iran attacks tankers for using unauthorized route

    Iran said its forces targeted three oil tankers using an unauthorized route in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as three U.S.-linked vessels elsewhere.

  19. New

    Hormuz traffic collapses to 10-day average of 10 vessels

    Commodity vessel transits averaged 10 per day over 10 days, the lowest since May. Only two transited on Saturday and six on Sunday.

  20. New

    No VLCC has exited Hormuz since Wednesday

    No very large crude carrier has left the strait since Wednesday, reflecting intensified security risks.

  21. New

    Brent touches six-week high near $98

    Brent crude settled around $97.31 after an intraday high of about $98.06. Brent rose roughly 8% over the prior week and WTI nearly 10%.

  22. New

    U.S. destroys five Iranian oil tankers

    U.S. forces struck five Iranian crude oil tankers near Kharg Island and Jask after IRGC ballistic-missile attacks on two U.S. warships. Named vessels include M/T Downy and M/T Stark 1 (permanently disabled) and M/T Kylo (completely destroyed).

  23. New

    Iran retaliates, warns ships using unauthorized Hormuz route

    Iran's IRGC said it targeted three tankers using an unauthorized route through Hormuz and three U.S.-linked vessels elsewhere, warning other vessels they will be targeted if they follow the same route.

  24. New

    Hormuz traffic falls to seven vessels Monday

    Only seven commodity vessels transited the strait on Monday, compared with eight on Sunday, sustaining the near-freeze in tanker flows.

  25. New

    Brent touches $99.46, highest since July 24

    Brent crude briefly reached $99.46 per barrel on Tuesday as tanker strikes and Hormuz transit risks intensified.

  26. New

    U.S. strikes five more Iranian tankers

    US forces destroyed five Iranian crude oil tankers—Kaviz, Charminar, Horizon 1, Riesco and Derya—in the Gulf of Oman and near Kharg Island after the IRGC twice attempted ballistic missile attacks on a US Navy warship over the previous two days. CENTCOM said crews were directed to abandon ship before the strikes.

  27. New

    CENTCOM confirms no US warship hit

    US Central Command emphasized that no US Navy warship had been struck by Iranian missile attempts, calling Iranian claims of hits 'completely FALSE' and saying all attempted attacks failed.

  28. New

    Ten Iranian tankers destroyed since Sept. 5

    CENTCOM said US forces have now destroyed 10 Iranian tankers since September 5, describing them as part of a multibillion-dollar 'shadow network' used to fund the IRGC.

  29. New

    Brent crude settles above $100

    Brent crude settled above $100 per barrel on Tuesday, crossing the threshold for the first time since July 24 as the Middle East conflict escalated.

  30. New

    Hormuz traffic drops to six vessels

    Only six commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, down from nine on Monday and well below normal averages, according to Kpler data.

  31. NewContested

    Iran claims attack on 20 US vessels, Jordan base

    Iran's Revolutionary Guards claimed to have attacked 20 US vessels attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz and struck a US base in Jordan in response to US tanker strikes. CENTCOM disputes Iranian claims of successful hits on US vessels.

  32. Changed

    Iran claims attack on 10 vessels near Hormuz

    Iran said it attacked 10 vessels near the Strait of Hormuz in response to US destruction of five Iranian tankers. The IRGC warned it would escalate its response to any further attacks.

  33. New

    Brent crude surges to $105.26

    Brent crude jumped 4% to $105.26 per barrel on Wednesday, the highest close since late July, as tanker attacks and Hormuz risks deepened supply fears.

  34. New

    Ship transits at key chokepoints plunge

    Preliminary Kpler data showed only nine commodity vessels transited one monitored channel as shipping companies rerouted or halted voyages amid escalating attacks.

  35. Changed

    Iranian strikes damage US aircraft in Jordan

    Iranian strikes on a US military base in Jordan damaged multiple US aircraft, according to one outlet explicitly linking the attack to the earlier US destruction of Iranian tankers.

  36. New

    Three destroyed tankers linked to Russia's shadow fleet

    A Ukrainian sanctions official said three of the five Iranian tankers destroyed on September 8 were linked to Russia's shadow fleet.

  37. New

    Hormuz traffic falls to seven vessels on Thursday

    Preliminary Kpler data showed only seven commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, down from nine on Wednesday and well below the 10-day average of 15. The seven vessels included two outbound Panamax ships and five inbound vessels.

  38. New

    NATO says Hormuz demining outside its mandate

    NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte confirmed that the alliance is not involved in mine-clearance operations in the Strait of Hormuz, stating the strategic waterway falls outside NATO territory.

  39. New

    One killed in vessel strike off Qeshm

    One person was killed and three wounded when a vessel was struck off Qeshm, escalating risks for commercial shipping in the region.

  40. New

    Iranian ship attacked in Strait, Saudi pipeline damaged

    An Iranian ship was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz and a Saudi pipeline was damaged in a drone strike, prompting oil futures to jump more than 3 percent.

  41. New

    Brent crude reaches $107.82–$108

    Brent crude rose to about $107.82 per barrel (Al Jazeera) or over $108 (The Independent) on Monday, with WTI climbing to $103.22, as markets reacted to the latest attacks.

  42. New

    Hormuz traffic remains in single digits over weekend

    Preliminary ship-tracking data showed daily vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz falling to single digits over the weekend, well below the 10-day average of 14.

  43. New

    Hormuz traffic collapses to four vessels

    Commodity vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz totaled just four on Monday—two dry bulk carriers exiting and two empty oil tankers entering—down from ten the previous day, according to preliminary Kpler data.

  44. New

    Brent holds above $107; U.S. oil tops $106

    Brent crude held above $107 per barrel on Monday, with outlets reporting levels around $107–$108, while U.S. WTI rose above $106 as traders assessed supply risks from the offline Saudi pipeline and continuing attacks.

  45. New

    Saudi Arabia reportedly cancels crude cargoes

    Saudi Arabia reportedly canceled some crude cargoes following closure of its East–West pipeline after attacks, according to CNBC, tightening supply expectations.

  46. New

    Goldman warns Brent could exceed $120

    Goldman Sachs warned that the infrastructure strikes materially raise the odds that Brent crude could exceed $120 per barrel.

  47. New

    Bi-directional VLCC traffic observed through Hormuz

    TankerTrackers analysis showed bi-directional daytime VLCC traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, though overall shipping remained sharply reduced.

  48. New

    Saudi East–West pipeline shut down after aerial attack

    Saudi Arabia shut down its East–West pipeline after an aerial attack, threatening to remove several million barrels per day of export capacity. The pipeline carries crude from eastern fields to Red Sea terminals at Yanbu.

  49. New

    Brent settles around $108.75–$109

    Brent crude settled around $108.75 per barrel (AsiaOne) to nearly $109 (CNBCTV18) on Tuesday, the highest close since May, as the Saudi pipeline closure compounded supply fears from Hormuz traffic collapse.

  50. New

    WTI settles at $105.83

    U.S. WTI crude settled at $105.83 per barrel on Tuesday, the highest since May, as traders weighed the impact of the pipeline closure and heightened war risk.

  51. Changed

    Saudi Arabia cancels crude cargoes to Europe

    Saudi Arabia canceled some cargo deliveries to European customers after suspending crude loadings at its Red Sea export hub Yanbu following the pipeline closure.

  52. Changed

    Analysts warn Brent could exceed $120

    Analysts including Goldman Sachs warn that continued infrastructure strikes materially raise the odds of Brent moving above $120, with some scenarios reaching $120–$150 per barrel if damage persists.

  53. New

    Brent retreats below $105 as repair timeline narrows

    Brent crude fell to around $102–$104.82 per barrel on Wednesday, down from Tuesday's close near $108–$109, as Saudi Arabia announced plans to restore pipeline capacity.

  54. New

    Aramco targets partial restart within days

    Saudi Aramco is building a bypass around damaged sections of the East–West pipeline and aims to restore roughly half of its capacity within days, with full operation expected in approximately six weeks.

  55. New

    Saudi Arabia deploys alternate export routes

    Saudi Arabia is using ship-to-ship transfers near Oman's Sohar port and other alternate routes to offset the pipeline closure and stabilize exports.

  56. New

    Saudi Aramco suspends deliveries to India

    Aramco halted crude deliveries to Indian refiners and redirected exports toward the Persian Gulf after the East–West pipeline shutdown.

  57. New

    Brent retreats below $104 as export pivots ease fears

    Brent crude settled around $103.17–$104.82 per barrel on Thursday, down from Wednesday's close near $108–$109, as Saudi Arabia's export rerouting calmed immediate supply concerns.

  58. New

    Three pumping stations confirmed damaged

    Industry analysis confirmed that three pumping stations on the East–West pipeline were damaged in the September 10 attacks attributed to Iran-backed militias in Iraq.

Claim tracker

13 confirmed · 2 unverified

  • Confirmed

    The East–West pipeline was shut down after drone attacks attributed to Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Houthi forces.

    All eleven outlets agree the pipeline was shut after drone attacks attributed to Iran-backed militias in Iraq; some also mention broader Houthi involvement in regional attacks.

    11 agreeing
  • Confirmed

    The East–West pipeline normally carries between 2.6 and 4 million barrels per day from eastern fields to Yanbu on the Red Sea.

    Multiple outlets confirm the pipeline's capacity and route. AGSI notes the route can carry up to 7 million b/d but that up to 4 million b/d was taken offline.

    5 agreeing
  • Confirmed

    Saudi Aramco is building a bypass around damaged sections and aims to restore roughly half of the pipeline's capacity within days.

    Baystreet, UA.News, Note.com, and AGSI all cite Bloomberg reporting on the bypass plan and partial restoration timeline.

    5 agreeing
  • Confirmed

    Full pipeline operation is targeted in approximately six weeks.

    UA.News and Note.com both cite the six-week timeline for full restoration.

    3 agreeing
  • Confirmed

    Brent crude fell to around $102–$104.82 per barrel on September 17.

    Previous brief recorded this; today's coverage shows further movement on September 18.

    4 agreeing
  • Confirmed

    U.S. WTI crude fell below $100 per barrel on September 17.

    Previous brief recorded this development.

    3 agreeing
  • Confirmed

    Saudi Arabia is using ship-to-ship transfers near Oman's Sohar port to offset the pipeline closure.

    The Rio Times and CNBC confirm ship-to-ship transfers near Oman as part of Saudi export workarounds.

    3 agreeing
  • Confirmed

    Independent analysts had warned repairs could take weeks or months.

    Previous brief established this; no new conflicting information.

    1 agreeing
  • Confirmed

    Three pumping stations on the East–West pipeline were damaged in the September 10 attacks.

    AGSI and UA.News both report three pumping stations were damaged in the attacks.

    2 agreeing
  • Confirmed

    Saudi Aramco suspended crude deliveries to Indian refiners following the pipeline shutdown.

    The Tribune and Business Standard both report Aramco halted crude supplies to Indian refiners after the pipeline attack.

    2 agreeing
  • Confirmed

    Brent crude settled around $103.17–$104.82 per barrel on September 18.

    Multiple outlets report Brent settling in this range on Thursday, with The Tribune at $103.17, Business Standard at $103.17, CNBC at $103.87, Gulf Daily News at $103.77, The Rio Times at $104.82, and OilPrice below $105.

    6 agreeing
  • Confirmed

    U.S. WTI crude settled around $100.88–$101.91 per barrel on September 18.

    The Tribune reports $101.30, Business Standard $101.30, Gulf Daily News $100.88, and The Rio Times $101.91.

    4 agreeing
  • Confirmed

    Saudi Arabia pivoted exports toward the Persian Gulf to offset the pipeline closure.

    OilPrice, The Rio Times, CNBC, and Gulf Daily News all describe Saudi Arabia redirecting exports through Gulf routes.

    4 agreeing
  • Unverified

    Satellite imagery shows smoke and burn scars near Medina from the pipeline attacks.

    No new coverage addresses this claim.

    0 agreeing
  • Unverified

    Yemen's Houthi rebels seized Mayun island at the mouth of the Red Sea.

    No new coverage addresses this claim.

    0 agreeing

What we still don't know

  • How many barrels per day of crude has Saudi Arabia successfully rerouted through the Persian Gulf and ship-to-ship transfers, and can this volume fully offset the pipeline outage?
  • Which other countries besides India have had Saudi crude deliveries suspended or deferred, and for how long?
  • What is the current daily transit count through the Strait of Hormuz on September 18, and has it begun to recover as Saudi exports shift routes?
  • Has the bypass construction on the East–West pipeline actually begun, or is it still in the planning stage?
  • Did the Houthi seizure of Mayun island (reported by one outlet in the previous brief) actually occur, and what impact would it have on Red Sea shipping?
  • What is the precise technical scope of the bypass—how many kilometers of pipe, and which specific damaged sections will be circumvented?

US–Israel war with Iran

Sources analysed

8 outlets in the analysed roster.

Ask me to verify a claim ✓