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War/GeopoliticalDevelopingUS–Israel war with Iran

Brent crude breaks $108 as new strikes hit Iranian ship and Saudi pipeline

Oil futures jumped more than 3 percent Monday after an Iranian ship was attacked in the Strait and a Saudi pipeline was damaged in a drone strike, sustaining supply fears.

7 sources analysed3 contested claims
The flags of the United States and Iran meeting at the centre of the frame, lightning bursting where they meet beneath a dark, stormy sky.
Illustration generated with AI. Not a photograph of the conflict.

Quick summary

Brent crude reached about $107.82 per barrel and WTI climbed to $103.22 on Monday as oil futures jumped more than 3 percent following an Iranian commercial ship attack in the Strait of Hormuz and damage to a Saudi pipeline in a drone strike, according to Al Jazeera. One outlet reported Brent rising about 3 percent to over $108. Oil prices have remained above $100 since September 3, with multiple outlets attributing the sustained rally to U.S. strikes on Iranian tankers and Iranian retaliatory attacks on ships near the strait. Preliminary ship-tracking data showed daily vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz falling to single digits over the weekend, well below the 10-day average of 14 or 15 cited by different outlets.

Key points

  • Brent crude rose to about $107.82 and WTI to $103.22 on Monday, driven by new attacks on an Iranian ship in the Strait and a Saudi pipeline.
  • Oil prices have remained above $100 per barrel since September 3, the longest sustained period above that threshold since late July.
  • Daily vessel transits through Hormuz fell to single digits over the weekend, well below the recent 10-day average.
  • One person was killed and three wounded in a vessel strike off Qeshm, heightening risks for commercial crews and insurers.
  • Reports describe Iran squeezing oil routes by sea and land as part of a wider U.S.–Iran conflict over energy infrastructure.

How it unfolded

  1. New

    War begins

    The US and Israel launch Operation Epic Fury. Ali Khamenei is killed in the opening strikes.

  2. Changed

    Ceasefire reached, then collapses

    The first attempt to halt the fighting does not hold.

  3. Changed

    Second attempt fails

    A new memorandum of understanding fails to produce a lasting halt to the conflict.

  4. New

    Operation Economic Outcast

    Washington targets more than 60 Iran-linked entities with new sanctions.

  5. New

    Hormuz corridor proposed

    Iran and Oman propose a temporary shipping corridor through the strait, as Qatar also pursues mediation.

  6. ChangedContested

    Strait declared cleared

    CENTCOM announces that Iranian-placed mines have been cleared from the Strait of Hormuz.

  7. New

    US strike on Larak Island

    US forces strike two IRGC rocket-launcher positions, saying they posed an imminent threat to shipping.

  8. New

    Iran responds

    The IRGC confirms casualties, condemns the attack and promises retaliation.

  9. NewContested

    New escalation

    Iran launches retaliatory missiles and drones toward US bases in Jordan and the UAE. Jordan reports intercepting eight missiles.

  10. New

    Economic impact

    Brent crude rises above $90 as markets react to renewed escalation.

  11. New

    Iran appeals for interim deal compliance

    Iran urges the US to comply with what it describes as an interim deal, while Trump threatens further strikes.

  12. New

    US launches new strikes near Hormuz

    The United States launches a new barrage of airstrikes on Iranian targets around the Strait of Hormuz.

  13. New

    Brent crude hits intraday high near $99

    Brent surged to about $99.38 per barrel before settling in the $95–$97 range as markets priced in heightened supply risk.

  14. New

    Iran strikes Kuwait

    Iran launched missiles and drones at Kuwait, expanding Operation Punishment of the Aggressor.

  15. New

    US carries out second round of strikes

    The United States hit Iranian radar, missile and mine-laying infrastructure in a second wave in three days.

  16. New

    Hormuz transits fall to single digits

    Tanker flows through the strait dropped to as few as six vessels on recent days, versus a rolling average near 13.

  17. New

    U.S. strikes Iranian tankers off Kharg Island

    U.S. forces struck three Iranian oil tankers off Kharg Island in response to earlier Revolutionary Guard attacks on U.S. warships.

  18. New

    Iran attacks tankers for using unauthorized route

    Iran said its forces targeted three oil tankers using an unauthorized route in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as three U.S.-linked vessels elsewhere.

  19. New

    Hormuz traffic collapses to 10-day average of 10 vessels

    Commodity vessel transits averaged 10 per day over 10 days, the lowest since May. Only two transited on Saturday and six on Sunday.

  20. New

    No VLCC has exited Hormuz since Wednesday

    No very large crude carrier has left the strait since Wednesday, reflecting intensified security risks.

  21. New

    Brent touches six-week high near $98

    Brent crude settled around $97.31 after an intraday high of about $98.06. Brent rose roughly 8% over the prior week and WTI nearly 10%.

  22. New

    U.S. destroys five Iranian oil tankers

    U.S. forces struck five Iranian crude oil tankers near Kharg Island and Jask after IRGC ballistic-missile attacks on two U.S. warships. Named vessels include M/T Downy and M/T Stark 1 (permanently disabled) and M/T Kylo (completely destroyed).

  23. New

    Iran retaliates, warns ships using unauthorized Hormuz route

    Iran's IRGC said it targeted three tankers using an unauthorized route through Hormuz and three U.S.-linked vessels elsewhere, warning other vessels they will be targeted if they follow the same route.

  24. New

    Hormuz traffic falls to seven vessels Monday

    Only seven commodity vessels transited the strait on Monday, compared with eight on Sunday, sustaining the near-freeze in tanker flows.

  25. New

    Brent touches $99.46, highest since July 24

    Brent crude briefly reached $99.46 per barrel on Tuesday as tanker strikes and Hormuz transit risks intensified.

  26. New

    U.S. strikes five more Iranian tankers

    US forces destroyed five Iranian crude oil tankers—Kaviz, Charminar, Horizon 1, Riesco and Derya—in the Gulf of Oman and near Kharg Island after the IRGC twice attempted ballistic missile attacks on a US Navy warship over the previous two days. CENTCOM said crews were directed to abandon ship before the strikes.

  27. New

    CENTCOM confirms no US warship hit

    US Central Command emphasized that no US Navy warship had been struck by Iranian missile attempts, calling Iranian claims of hits 'completely FALSE' and saying all attempted attacks failed.

  28. New

    Ten Iranian tankers destroyed since Sept. 5

    CENTCOM said US forces have now destroyed 10 Iranian tankers since September 5, describing them as part of a multibillion-dollar 'shadow network' used to fund the IRGC.

  29. New

    Brent crude settles above $100

    Brent crude settled above $100 per barrel on Tuesday, crossing the threshold for the first time since July 24 as the Middle East conflict escalated.

  30. New

    Hormuz traffic drops to six vessels

    Only six commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, down from nine on Monday and well below normal averages, according to Kpler data.

  31. NewContested

    Iran claims attack on 20 US vessels, Jordan base

    Iran's Revolutionary Guards claimed to have attacked 20 US vessels attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz and struck a US base in Jordan in response to US tanker strikes. CENTCOM disputes Iranian claims of successful hits on US vessels.

  32. Changed

    Iran claims attack on 10 vessels near Hormuz

    Iran said it attacked 10 vessels near the Strait of Hormuz in response to US destruction of five Iranian tankers. The IRGC warned it would escalate its response to any further attacks.

  33. New

    Brent crude surges to $105.26

    Brent crude jumped 4% to $105.26 per barrel on Wednesday, the highest close since late July, as tanker attacks and Hormuz risks deepened supply fears.

  34. New

    Ship transits at key chokepoints plunge

    Preliminary Kpler data showed only nine commodity vessels transited one monitored channel as shipping companies rerouted or halted voyages amid escalating attacks.

  35. Changed

    Iranian strikes damage US aircraft in Jordan

    Iranian strikes on a US military base in Jordan damaged multiple US aircraft, according to one outlet explicitly linking the attack to the earlier US destruction of Iranian tankers.

  36. New

    Three destroyed tankers linked to Russia's shadow fleet

    A Ukrainian sanctions official said three of the five Iranian tankers destroyed on September 8 were linked to Russia's shadow fleet.

  37. New

    Hormuz traffic falls to seven vessels on Thursday

    Preliminary Kpler data showed only seven commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, down from nine on Wednesday and well below the 10-day average of 15. The seven vessels included two outbound Panamax ships and five inbound vessels.

  38. New

    NATO says Hormuz demining outside its mandate

    NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte confirmed that the alliance is not involved in mine-clearance operations in the Strait of Hormuz, stating the strategic waterway falls outside NATO territory.

  39. New

    One killed in vessel strike off Qeshm

    One person was killed and three wounded when a vessel was struck off Qeshm, escalating risks for commercial shipping in the region.

  40. New

    Iranian ship attacked in Strait, Saudi pipeline damaged

    An Iranian ship was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz and a Saudi pipeline was damaged in a drone strike, prompting oil futures to jump more than 3 percent.

  41. New

    Brent crude reaches $107.82–$108

    Brent crude rose to about $107.82 per barrel (Al Jazeera) or over $108 (The Independent) on Monday, with WTI climbing to $103.22, as markets reacted to the latest attacks.

  42. New

    Hormuz traffic remains in single digits over weekend

    Preliminary ship-tracking data showed daily vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz falling to single digits over the weekend, well below the 10-day average of 14.

Claim tracker

23 confirmed · 3 contested · 1 unverified

  • Confirmed

    US forces destroyed five Iranian crude oil tankers on September 8/9 after IRGC ballistic missile attacks on US warships

  • Confirmed

    The targeted tankers were struck in the Gulf of Oman and near Kharg Island

  • Confirmed

    Crews were directed to abandon ship before the tankers were struck

  • Confirmed

    Brent crude settled above $100 per barrel on Tuesday

  • Confirmed

    Only six commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday

  • Confirmed

    Iran struck a US base in Jordan in response to US tanker strikes

  • Confirmed

    Brent crude surged to $105.26 per barrel on Wednesday, the highest close since late July

  • Confirmed

    Iran claimed it attacked 10 vessels near the Strait of Hormuz in response to US destruction of five Iranian tankers

  • Confirmed

    Only nine commodity vessels transited one monitored channel as of Wednesday

  • Confirmed

    Only seven commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday

  • Confirmed

    The seven vessels on Thursday included two outbound Panamax ships and five inbound vessels

  • Confirmed

    The recent 10-day average for Hormuz transits is 15 vessels

  • Confirmed

    Oil prices are set to end the week above $100 per barrel

  • Confirmed

    NATO is not involved in mine-clearance operations in the Strait of Hormuz

  • Confirmed

    Iran has warned it will escalate its response if there are further US attacks

  • Confirmed

    Oil prices have remained above $100 per barrel since September 3

  • Confirmed

    One person was killed and three wounded in a vessel strike off Qeshm

  • Confirmed

    An Iranian ship was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz on September 14

  • Confirmed

    A Saudi pipeline was damaged in a drone strike on September 14

  • Confirmed

    Brent crude reached about $107.82 per barrel on Monday

  • Confirmed

    WTI reached $103.22 per barrel on Monday

  • Confirmed

    Daily vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz fell to single digits over the weekend

  • Confirmed

    The 10-day average for Hormuz transits is 14 vessels

  • Contested

    No US Navy warship was struck by Iranian missile attempts

  • Contested

    US forces have destroyed 10 Iranian tankers since September 5

  • Contested

    Iran's Revolutionary Guards attacked 20 US vessels attempting to transit Hormuz

  • Unverified

    Three of the five Iranian tankers destroyed on September 8 were linked to Russia's shadow fleet

What we still don't know

  • What were the casualties or damage from Iran's claimed attack on the US base in Jordan, beyond the reported damage to multiple US aircraft?
  • How many Iranian ballistic missiles were launched in the two attempted attacks on the US warship, and how were they evaded or intercepted?
  • What is Iran's definition of the 'unauthorized route' through the Strait of Hormuz that it says justifies targeting vessels?
  • How sustainable is the current level of Hormuz traffic for global oil supply?
  • What is the total tonnage of Iranian crude capacity destroyed since September 5?
  • How many Iranian tankers has the US actually destroyed since September 5—eight or ten?
  • Which vessels did Iran claim to have attacked on September 10, and what was the outcome?
  • What evidence supports the Ukrainian claim that three of the destroyed Iranian tankers were linked to Russia's shadow fleet?
  • What is the actual vessel count through Hormuz, accounting for ships with positioning systems switched off?
  • How many vessels have transited other key chokepoints such as Bab al-Mandeb during the same period?
  • What specific actions, if any, is NATO considering to address the crisis despite the strait falling outside its mandate?
  • Who was responsible for the attack on the Iranian ship in the Strait of Hormuz on September 14?
  • Who carried out the drone strike on the Saudi pipeline on September 14?
  • What is the identity and flag of the vessel struck off Qeshm on September 13?
  • Are U.S. forces escorting covert shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, and if so, how many?
  • What is the precise Brent crude price on Monday—$107.82 or over $108?
  • How many Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia occurred over the weekend, and what was the damage?

US–Israel war with Iran

Sources analysed

7 outlets in the analysed roster.

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