Brent jumps to $108–$109 as Saudi East–West pipeline shut down
Pipeline closure after aerial attack compounds supply fears from Hormuz traffic collapse, with Goldman warning Brent could exceed $120.
Quick summary
Saudi Arabia has shut down its East–West pipeline after an aerial attack, according to multiple outlets reporting on the widening US–Israel war with Iran. The closure threatens to cut off a route that carried up to several million barrels per day from eastern fields to Red Sea terminals. Brent crude settled around $108–$109 per barrel on Tuesday, with AsiaOne reporting Brent at roughly $108.75 and CNBCTV18 noting an intraday close near $109 before prices stabilized around $108. The four commodity vessels that transited the Strait of Hormuz on Monday—two dry bulk carriers exiting and two empty oil tankers entering—represented a sharp drop from ten the previous day, based on preliminary Kpler data reported by multiple outlets.
Key points
- Saudi Arabia's East–West pipeline was shut down after an aerial attack, threatening to remove several million barrels per day of export capacity from global supply.
- Brent crude settled around $108.75–$109 per barrel on Tuesday, the highest close since May, as traders assessed the combined impact of the pipeline closure and Hormuz shipping collapse.
- Only four commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Monday—down from ten on Sunday—comprising two dry bulk carriers exiting and two empty oil tankers entering.
- Goldman Sachs and other analysts warn that continued infrastructure strikes materially raise the odds of Brent exceeding $120 per barrel.
- Saudi Arabia reportedly canceled some crude cargo deliveries to European customers following the pipeline closure.
How it unfolded
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War begins
The US and Israel launch Operation Epic Fury. Ali Khamenei is killed in the opening strikes.
- Changed
Ceasefire reached, then collapses
The first attempt to halt the fighting does not hold.
- Changed
Second attempt fails
A new memorandum of understanding fails to produce a lasting halt to the conflict.
- New
Operation Economic Outcast
Washington targets more than 60 Iran-linked entities with new sanctions.
- New
Hormuz corridor proposed
Iran and Oman propose a temporary shipping corridor through the strait, as Qatar also pursues mediation.
- ChangedContested
Strait declared cleared
CENTCOM announces that Iranian-placed mines have been cleared from the Strait of Hormuz.
- New
US strike on Larak Island
US forces strike two IRGC rocket-launcher positions, saying they posed an imminent threat to shipping.
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Iran responds
The IRGC confirms casualties, condemns the attack and promises retaliation.
- NewContested
New escalation
Iran launches retaliatory missiles and drones toward US bases in Jordan and the UAE. Jordan reports intercepting eight missiles.
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Economic impact
Brent crude rises above $90 as markets react to renewed escalation.
- New
Iran appeals for interim deal compliance
Iran urges the US to comply with what it describes as an interim deal, while Trump threatens further strikes.
- New
US launches new strikes near Hormuz
The United States launches a new barrage of airstrikes on Iranian targets around the Strait of Hormuz.
- New
Brent crude hits intraday high near $99
Brent surged to about $99.38 per barrel before settling in the $95–$97 range as markets priced in heightened supply risk.
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Iran strikes Kuwait
Iran launched missiles and drones at Kuwait, expanding Operation Punishment of the Aggressor.
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US carries out second round of strikes
The United States hit Iranian radar, missile and mine-laying infrastructure in a second wave in three days.
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Hormuz transits fall to single digits
Tanker flows through the strait dropped to as few as six vessels on recent days, versus a rolling average near 13.
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U.S. strikes Iranian tankers off Kharg Island
U.S. forces struck three Iranian oil tankers off Kharg Island in response to earlier Revolutionary Guard attacks on U.S. warships.
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Iran attacks tankers for using unauthorized route
Iran said its forces targeted three oil tankers using an unauthorized route in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as three U.S.-linked vessels elsewhere.
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Hormuz traffic collapses to 10-day average of 10 vessels
Commodity vessel transits averaged 10 per day over 10 days, the lowest since May. Only two transited on Saturday and six on Sunday.
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No VLCC has exited Hormuz since Wednesday
No very large crude carrier has left the strait since Wednesday, reflecting intensified security risks.
- New
Brent touches six-week high near $98
Brent crude settled around $97.31 after an intraday high of about $98.06. Brent rose roughly 8% over the prior week and WTI nearly 10%.
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U.S. destroys five Iranian oil tankers
U.S. forces struck five Iranian crude oil tankers near Kharg Island and Jask after IRGC ballistic-missile attacks on two U.S. warships. Named vessels include M/T Downy and M/T Stark 1 (permanently disabled) and M/T Kylo (completely destroyed).
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Iran retaliates, warns ships using unauthorized Hormuz route
Iran's IRGC said it targeted three tankers using an unauthorized route through Hormuz and three U.S.-linked vessels elsewhere, warning other vessels they will be targeted if they follow the same route.
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Hormuz traffic falls to seven vessels Monday
Only seven commodity vessels transited the strait on Monday, compared with eight on Sunday, sustaining the near-freeze in tanker flows.
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Brent touches $99.46, highest since July 24
Brent crude briefly reached $99.46 per barrel on Tuesday as tanker strikes and Hormuz transit risks intensified.
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U.S. strikes five more Iranian tankers
US forces destroyed five Iranian crude oil tankers—Kaviz, Charminar, Horizon 1, Riesco and Derya—in the Gulf of Oman and near Kharg Island after the IRGC twice attempted ballistic missile attacks on a US Navy warship over the previous two days. CENTCOM said crews were directed to abandon ship before the strikes.
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CENTCOM confirms no US warship hit
US Central Command emphasized that no US Navy warship had been struck by Iranian missile attempts, calling Iranian claims of hits 'completely FALSE' and saying all attempted attacks failed.
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Ten Iranian tankers destroyed since Sept. 5
CENTCOM said US forces have now destroyed 10 Iranian tankers since September 5, describing them as part of a multibillion-dollar 'shadow network' used to fund the IRGC.
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Brent crude settles above $100
Brent crude settled above $100 per barrel on Tuesday, crossing the threshold for the first time since July 24 as the Middle East conflict escalated.
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Hormuz traffic drops to six vessels
Only six commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, down from nine on Monday and well below normal averages, according to Kpler data.
- NewContested
Iran claims attack on 20 US vessels, Jordan base
Iran's Revolutionary Guards claimed to have attacked 20 US vessels attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz and struck a US base in Jordan in response to US tanker strikes. CENTCOM disputes Iranian claims of successful hits on US vessels.
- Changed
Iran claims attack on 10 vessels near Hormuz
Iran said it attacked 10 vessels near the Strait of Hormuz in response to US destruction of five Iranian tankers. The IRGC warned it would escalate its response to any further attacks.
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Brent crude surges to $105.26
Brent crude jumped 4% to $105.26 per barrel on Wednesday, the highest close since late July, as tanker attacks and Hormuz risks deepened supply fears.
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Ship transits at key chokepoints plunge
Preliminary Kpler data showed only nine commodity vessels transited one monitored channel as shipping companies rerouted or halted voyages amid escalating attacks.
- Changed
Iranian strikes damage US aircraft in Jordan
Iranian strikes on a US military base in Jordan damaged multiple US aircraft, according to one outlet explicitly linking the attack to the earlier US destruction of Iranian tankers.
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Three destroyed tankers linked to Russia's shadow fleet
A Ukrainian sanctions official said three of the five Iranian tankers destroyed on September 8 were linked to Russia's shadow fleet.
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Hormuz traffic falls to seven vessels on Thursday
Preliminary Kpler data showed only seven commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, down from nine on Wednesday and well below the 10-day average of 15. The seven vessels included two outbound Panamax ships and five inbound vessels.
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NATO says Hormuz demining outside its mandate
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte confirmed that the alliance is not involved in mine-clearance operations in the Strait of Hormuz, stating the strategic waterway falls outside NATO territory.
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One killed in vessel strike off Qeshm
One person was killed and three wounded when a vessel was struck off Qeshm, escalating risks for commercial shipping in the region.
- New
Iranian ship attacked in Strait, Saudi pipeline damaged
An Iranian ship was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz and a Saudi pipeline was damaged in a drone strike, prompting oil futures to jump more than 3 percent.
- New
Brent crude reaches $107.82–$108
Brent crude rose to about $107.82 per barrel (Al Jazeera) or over $108 (The Independent) on Monday, with WTI climbing to $103.22, as markets reacted to the latest attacks.
- New
Hormuz traffic remains in single digits over weekend
Preliminary ship-tracking data showed daily vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz falling to single digits over the weekend, well below the 10-day average of 14.
- New
Hormuz traffic collapses to four vessels
Commodity vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz totaled just four on Monday—two dry bulk carriers exiting and two empty oil tankers entering—down from ten the previous day, according to preliminary Kpler data.
- New
Brent holds above $107; U.S. oil tops $106
Brent crude held above $107 per barrel on Monday, with outlets reporting levels around $107–$108, while U.S. WTI rose above $106 as traders assessed supply risks from the offline Saudi pipeline and continuing attacks.
- New
Saudi Arabia reportedly cancels crude cargoes
Saudi Arabia reportedly canceled some crude cargoes following closure of its East–West pipeline after attacks, according to CNBC, tightening supply expectations.
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Goldman warns Brent could exceed $120
Goldman Sachs warned that the infrastructure strikes materially raise the odds that Brent crude could exceed $120 per barrel.
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Bi-directional VLCC traffic observed through Hormuz
TankerTrackers analysis showed bi-directional daytime VLCC traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, though overall shipping remained sharply reduced.
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Saudi East–West pipeline shut down after aerial attack
Saudi Arabia shut down its East–West pipeline after an aerial attack, threatening to remove several million barrels per day of export capacity. The pipeline carries crude from eastern fields to Red Sea terminals at Yanbu.
- New
Brent settles around $108.75–$109
Brent crude settled around $108.75 per barrel (AsiaOne) to nearly $109 (CNBCTV18) on Tuesday, the highest close since May, as the Saudi pipeline closure compounded supply fears from Hormuz traffic collapse.
- New
WTI settles at $105.83
U.S. WTI crude settled at $105.83 per barrel on Tuesday, the highest since May, as traders weighed the impact of the pipeline closure and heightened war risk.
- Changed
Saudi Arabia cancels crude cargoes to Europe
Saudi Arabia canceled some cargo deliveries to European customers after suspending crude loadings at its Red Sea export hub Yanbu following the pipeline closure.
- Changed
Analysts warn Brent could exceed $120
Analysts including Goldman Sachs warn that continued infrastructure strikes materially raise the odds of Brent moving above $120, with some scenarios reaching $120–$150 per barrel if damage persists.
US–Israel war with Iran
- US strike on Larak Island triggers Iranian retaliation
- Trump threatens further strikes as Iran appeals for compliance with interim deal
- US launches new strikes around Strait of Hormuz; Iran expands retaliation beyond Jordan
- Brent crude hits intraday high near $99, settles around $96–$97 as Iran strikes expand to Kuwait
- Hormuz shipping collapses to lowest since May as US, Iran engage in tanker war
- US destroys five Iranian oil tankers after IRGC missile attack on warships
- Brent crude breaks $100 as US strikes five more Iranian tankers and Hormuz traffic falls to six vessels
- Brent crude surges to $105.26 as Iran claims attack on 10 vessels near Hormuz
- Hormuz shipping traffic collapses to seven vessels as oil prices hold above $100
- Brent crude breaks $108 as new strikes hit Iranian ship and Saudi pipeline
- Hormuz traffic collapses to four vessels as Brent holds above $107
- Brent retreats below $105 as Aramco targets partial pipeline restart within days
- Saudi Aramco suspends crude deliveries to India as pipeline repairs begin
Sources analysed
8 outlets in the analysed roster.
- The Jerusalem Post — How the Iran war could affect oil prices, Gulf exports and ...
- Ground News — Strait of Hormuz Shipping Traffic Drops Sharply Amid Gulf ...
- AsiaOne — Oil settles US$3 higher on Yanbu disruption, Saudi cargo ...
- Iran International — Iran-backed Iraqi group denies agreeing to hand over weapons
- CNBC — Oil falls as U.S. crude inventories reportedly rise, traders weigh Saudi pipeline closure
- El País — $150 for an oil barrel, the new extreme scenario following closure of ...
- CNBCTV18 — Oil prices surge as Saudi pipeline outage, Libya shutdowns add to ...
- The Daily Star — Attacks shut down key Saudi oil pipeline