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War/GeopoliticalDevelopingUS–Israel war with Iran

Brent crude surges to $105.26 as Iran claims attack on 10 vessels near Hormuz

Oil prices spiked 4 percent on Wednesday as Iran said it struck 10 ships after US forces destroyed five more Iranian tankers, deepening supply fears.

8 sources analysed3 contested claims
The flags of the United States and Iran meeting at the centre of the frame, lightning bursting where they meet beneath a dark, stormy sky.
Illustration generated with AI. Not a photograph of the conflict.

Quick summary

Brent crude surged to $105.26 per barrel on Wednesday, up 4 percent and the highest since late July, after Iran claimed it attacked 10 vessels near the Strait of Hormuz in response to US forces destroying five Iranian oil tankers on September 8. The tankers—Kaviz, Charminar, Horizon 1 and Riesco in the Gulf of Oman, and Derya near Kharg Island—were struck after the IRGC twice attempted ballistic missile attacks on a US Navy warship; CENTCOM said crews were ordered to abandon ship before the strikes. Ship transits at key regional chokepoints have plunged as the escalating attacks threaten global oil supply chains, with preliminary data showing only nine commodity vessels transiting one monitored channel.

Key points

  • Brent crude jumped 4% to $105.26 per barrel on Wednesday, the highest close since late July, driven by escalating tanker attacks and supply fears
  • Iran claimed it struck 10 vessels near the Strait of Hormuz after US forces destroyed five Iranian tankers—Kaviz, Charminar, Horizon 1, Riesco and Derya—on September 8
  • US Central Command said the tankers were struck after the IRGC twice attempted ballistic missile attacks on a US Navy warship over the prior two days
  • Ship transits at key regional chokepoints have plunged, with preliminary data showing only nine commodity vessels transiting one monitored channel
  • A Ukrainian sanctions official said three of the destroyed tankers were linked to Russia's shadow fleet

How it unfolded

  1. New

    War begins

    The US and Israel launch Operation Epic Fury. Ali Khamenei is killed in the opening strikes.

  2. Changed

    Ceasefire reached, then collapses

    The first attempt to halt the fighting does not hold.

  3. Changed

    Second attempt fails

    A new memorandum of understanding fails to produce a lasting halt to the conflict.

  4. New

    Operation Economic Outcast

    Washington targets more than 60 Iran-linked entities with new sanctions.

  5. New

    Hormuz corridor proposed

    Iran and Oman propose a temporary shipping corridor through the strait, as Qatar also pursues mediation.

  6. ChangedContested

    Strait declared cleared

    CENTCOM announces that Iranian-placed mines have been cleared from the Strait of Hormuz.

  7. New

    US strike on Larak Island

    US forces strike two IRGC rocket-launcher positions, saying they posed an imminent threat to shipping.

  8. New

    Iran responds

    The IRGC confirms casualties, condemns the attack and promises retaliation.

  9. NewContested

    New escalation

    Iran launches retaliatory missiles and drones toward US bases in Jordan and the UAE. Jordan reports intercepting eight missiles.

  10. New

    Economic impact

    Brent crude rises above $90 as markets react to renewed escalation.

  11. New

    Iran appeals for interim deal compliance

    Iran urges the US to comply with what it describes as an interim deal, while Trump threatens further strikes.

  12. New

    US launches new strikes near Hormuz

    The United States launches a new barrage of airstrikes on Iranian targets around the Strait of Hormuz.

  13. New

    Brent crude hits intraday high near $99

    Brent surged to about $99.38 per barrel before settling in the $95–$97 range as markets priced in heightened supply risk.

  14. New

    Iran strikes Kuwait

    Iran launched missiles and drones at Kuwait, expanding Operation Punishment of the Aggressor.

  15. New

    US carries out second round of strikes

    The United States hit Iranian radar, missile and mine-laying infrastructure in a second wave in three days.

  16. New

    Hormuz transits fall to single digits

    Tanker flows through the strait dropped to as few as six vessels on recent days, versus a rolling average near 13.

  17. New

    U.S. strikes Iranian tankers off Kharg Island

    U.S. forces struck three Iranian oil tankers off Kharg Island in response to earlier Revolutionary Guard attacks on U.S. warships.

  18. New

    Iran attacks tankers for using unauthorized route

    Iran said its forces targeted three oil tankers using an unauthorized route in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as three U.S.-linked vessels elsewhere.

  19. New

    Hormuz traffic collapses to 10-day average of 10 vessels

    Commodity vessel transits averaged 10 per day over 10 days, the lowest since May. Only two transited on Saturday and six on Sunday.

  20. New

    No VLCC has exited Hormuz since Wednesday

    No very large crude carrier has left the strait since Wednesday, reflecting intensified security risks.

  21. New

    Brent touches six-week high near $98

    Brent crude settled around $97.31 after an intraday high of about $98.06. Brent rose roughly 8% over the prior week and WTI nearly 10%.

  22. New

    U.S. destroys five Iranian oil tankers

    U.S. forces struck five Iranian crude oil tankers near Kharg Island and Jask after IRGC ballistic-missile attacks on two U.S. warships. Named vessels include M/T Downy and M/T Stark 1 (permanently disabled) and M/T Kylo (completely destroyed).

  23. New

    Iran retaliates, warns ships using unauthorized Hormuz route

    Iran's IRGC said it targeted three tankers using an unauthorized route through Hormuz and three U.S.-linked vessels elsewhere, warning other vessels they will be targeted if they follow the same route.

  24. New

    Hormuz traffic falls to seven vessels Monday

    Only seven commodity vessels transited the strait on Monday, compared with eight on Sunday, sustaining the near-freeze in tanker flows.

  25. New

    Brent touches $99.46, highest since July 24

    Brent crude briefly reached $99.46 per barrel on Tuesday as tanker strikes and Hormuz transit risks intensified.

  26. New

    U.S. strikes five more Iranian tankers

    US forces destroyed five Iranian crude oil tankers—Kaviz, Charminar, Horizon 1, Riesco and Derya—in the Gulf of Oman and near Kharg Island after the IRGC twice attempted ballistic missile attacks on a US Navy warship over the previous two days. CENTCOM said crews were directed to abandon ship before the strikes.

  27. New

    CENTCOM confirms no US warship hit

    US Central Command emphasized that no US Navy warship had been struck by Iranian missile attempts, calling Iranian claims of hits 'completely FALSE' and saying all attempted attacks failed.

  28. New

    Ten Iranian tankers destroyed since Sept. 5

    CENTCOM said US forces have now destroyed 10 Iranian tankers since September 5, describing them as part of a multibillion-dollar 'shadow network' used to fund the IRGC.

  29. New

    Brent crude settles above $100

    Brent crude settled above $100 per barrel on Tuesday, crossing the threshold for the first time since July 24 as the Middle East conflict escalated.

  30. New

    Hormuz traffic drops to six vessels

    Only six commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, down from nine on Monday and well below normal averages, according to Kpler data.

  31. NewContested

    Iran claims attack on 20 US vessels, Jordan base

    Iran's Revolutionary Guards claimed to have attacked 20 US vessels attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz and struck a US base in Jordan in response to US tanker strikes. CENTCOM disputes Iranian claims of successful hits on US vessels.

  32. Changed

    Iran claims attack on 10 vessels near Hormuz

    Iran said it attacked 10 vessels near the Strait of Hormuz in response to US destruction of five Iranian tankers. The IRGC warned it would escalate its response to any further attacks.

  33. New

    Brent crude surges to $105.26

    Brent crude jumped 4% to $105.26 per barrel on Wednesday, the highest close since late July, as tanker attacks and Hormuz risks deepened supply fears.

  34. New

    Ship transits at key chokepoints plunge

    Preliminary Kpler data showed only nine commodity vessels transited one monitored channel as shipping companies rerouted or halted voyages amid escalating attacks.

  35. Changed

    Iranian strikes damage US aircraft in Jordan

    Iranian strikes on a US military base in Jordan damaged multiple US aircraft, according to one outlet explicitly linking the attack to the earlier US destruction of Iranian tankers.

  36. New

    Three destroyed tankers linked to Russia's shadow fleet

    A Ukrainian sanctions official said three of the five Iranian tankers destroyed on September 8 were linked to Russia's shadow fleet.

Claim tracker

8 confirmed · 3 contested · 2 unverified

  • Confirmed

    US forces destroyed five Iranian crude oil tankers on September 8/9 after IRGC ballistic missile attacks on US warships

    15 agreeing
  • Confirmed

    The targeted tankers were struck in the Gulf of Oman and near Kharg Island

    15 agreeing
  • Confirmed

    Crews were directed to abandon ship before the tankers were struck

    12 agreeing
  • Confirmed

    Brent crude settled above $100 per barrel on Tuesday

    8 agreeing
  • Confirmed

    Only six commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday

    No new sources address this specific figure for Tuesday; new data covers Wednesday and broader patterns.

    0 agreeing
  • Confirmed

    Iran struck a US base in Jordan in response to US tanker strikes

    The Gateway Pundit explicitly links Iranian strikes on a US military base in Jordan to the US destruction of five Iranian tankers, reporting that the strikes damaged multiple US aircraft.

    1 agreeing
  • Confirmed

    Brent crude surged to $105.26 per barrel on Wednesday, the highest close since late July

    The Straits Times reports Brent surged 4% to $105.26 per barrel on Wednesday after spiking above $100 the day before.

    1 agreeing
  • Confirmed

    Iran claimed it attacked 10 vessels near the Strait of Hormuz in response to US destruction of five Iranian tankers

    3 agreeing
  • Contested

    No US Navy warship was struck by Iranian missile attempts

    CENTCOM claims the warship successfully evaded Iranian attacks; Iran disputes this, claiming successful hits. Outlets report both positions without independent verification.

    2 agreeing
  • Contested

    US forces have destroyed 10 Iranian tankers since September 5

    One outlet (Investing.com) explicitly states CENTCOM has disabled eight Iranian tankers across operations on September 5 and 8, not ten.

    0 agreeing · 1 conflicting
  • Contested

    Iran's Revolutionary Guards attacked 20 US vessels attempting to transit Hormuz

    New sources report Iran claimed it attacked 10 vessels (not 20) near Hormuz in response to US tanker strikes.

    0 agreeing
  • Unverified

    Three of the five Iranian tankers destroyed on September 8 were linked to Russia's shadow fleet

    Only The Kyiv Independent reports this, citing a Ukrainian sanctions official, without independent corroboration from other outlets.

    1 agreeing
  • Unverified

    Only nine commodity vessels transited one monitored channel as of Wednesday

    The National cites preliminary Kpler data showing only nine commodity vessels transited 'one monitored channel,' but does not specify which channel or day.

    1 agreeing

What we still don't know

  • What were the casualties or damage from Iran's claimed attack on the US base in Jordan, beyond the reported damage to multiple US aircraft?
  • How many Iranian ballistic missiles were launched in the two attempted attacks on the US warship, and how were they evaded or intercepted?
  • What is Iran's definition of the 'unauthorized route' through the Strait of Hormuz that it says justifies targeting vessels?
  • How sustainable is the current level of Hormuz traffic for global oil supply?
  • What is the total tonnage of Iranian crude capacity destroyed since September 5?
  • How many Iranian tankers has the US actually destroyed since September 5—eight or ten?
  • Which vessels did Iran claim to have attacked on September 10, and what was the outcome?
  • What is the current daily transit count through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb, and how does it compare to pre-war baselines?
  • What evidence supports the Ukrainian claim that three of the destroyed Iranian tankers were linked to Russia's shadow fleet?

US–Israel war with Iran

Sources analysed

8 outlets in the analysed roster.

Ask me to verify a claim ✓