Danish intelligence warns Russia expected to escalate hybrid warfare in coming months
New assessment from Denmark's defence intelligence service predicts intensified hybrid attacks against NATO states following the Baltic flare incident.
Quick summary
Danish intelligence has issued a new assessment warning that Russia is expected to escalate hybrid warfare against NATO countries in the coming months. The warning comes from Denmark's defence intelligence service and follows the September 14 incident in which the Russian corvette Soobrazitelny fired flares toward a Danish helicopter. Multiple outlets report the intelligence assessment in the context of the Baltic confrontation. NATO's top commander has described increased intelligence-sharing among allies in response to concerns over Russian activity in the region.
Key points
- Danish defence intelligence service warns Russia expected to escalate hybrid warfare against NATO in coming months
- Assessment issued following the September 14 flare incident near Gedser
- NATO's top commander reports stepped-up intelligence sharing among allies
- Denmark's government formally confirmed the 1.8 billion kroner military aid package to Ukraine
How it unfolded
- New
The encounter
A Russian frigate fires two flares toward a Danish military helicopter over international waters near Gedser. One passes close to the aircraft.
- New
First reports
Danish outlet Ekstra Bladet breaks the story. Denmark's Defence Command issues an official statement later the same day.
- New
Denmark confirms the incident
Danish officials publicly confirm the account and describe the encounter as serious and unprecedented for Denmark.
Show 14 more eventsHide earlier events
- New
Russia's ambassador is summoned
Copenhagen summons the Russian ambassador — the first formal diplomatic step.
- ChangedContested
International coverage picks it up
Reuters, AP and other international outlets carry the story, and the framing begins to diverge from the Danish statement it is all sourced to.
- New
Russia has not responded
No public comment or competing account from Moscow, which leaves the Danish version as the sole source for every report so far.
- New
Russia responds and disputes Danish account
Russia's ambassador accuses Danish helicopters of dangerous manoeuvres near Russian warships, hands Copenhagen a formal note, and says Moscow is investigating.
- New
Denmark's leaders condemn the incident
Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen calls the Russian action reckless and aimed at intimidation; Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen calls it absolutely unacceptable.
- New
NATO calls the flare firing irresponsible
NATO issues a statement labeling the firing of flares toward the Danish helicopter an irresponsible act by Russia.
- NewContested
Debate over whether incident is an 'attack'
A military analyst at the University of Copenhagen argues the incident does not constitute an attack under international law because no weapons were used, highlighting definitional debate.
- New
Denmark speeds up Ukraine aid package in response
Copenhagen announces it is accelerating a planned military aid package to Ukraine directly in response to the flare incident.
- New
Danish helicopter identified as AS550 Fennec
The helicopter is identified as a Royal Danish Air Force AS550 Fennec conducting routine photographic identification.
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Russia decorates commander of the corvette
Russia formally awards the commander of the corvette Soobrazitelny, endorsing the flare launch as preventing a provocation.
- New
Russian vessel identified as Soobrazitelny
Russian authorities publicly identify the vessel as the corvette Soobrazitelny.
- NewContested
Russia claims helicopter did not respond to radio calls
Moscow says the Danish helicopter did not respond to calls on international channels, conflicting with Denmark's account that the frigate gave no radio warning.
- Changed
Denmark delivers accelerated Ukraine aid package
Copenhagen has delivered the 1.8 billion kroner military aid package to Ukraine, both accelerated and increased in direct response to the flare incident.
- New
Analysts describe Russia as taking more risks in Baltic
Experts characterise Russia as increasingly irritated and willing to take more risks with its warships and shadow fleet, framing the incident as part of a broader pattern of pressure on NATO states.
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Denmark formally announces Ukraine aid package
Denmark's Ministry of Foreign Affairs formally announces military donation package no. 31 for Ukraine, worth approximately 1.8 billion kroner, confirming the accelerated aid package following the flare incident.
- New
Danish intelligence warns of escalating hybrid warfare
Denmark's defence intelligence service issues an assessment warning that Russia is expected to escalate hybrid warfare against NATO countries in the coming months.
- New
NATO commander reports increased intelligence sharing
NATO's top commander describes increased intelligence sharing among allies amid concerns over Russian activity in the region.
Claim tracker
19 confirmed · 3 contested · 1 unverified
- Contested
The incident is part of a wider Russian hybrid-warfare campaign against NATO states.
- Contested
The incident does not constitute an attack under international law because no weapons were used.
- Contested
The Russian frigate gave no radio warning before firing flares.
- Unverified
Russia is increasingly irritated and willing to take more risks with its warships and shadow fleet in the Baltic.
Show 19 more claimsShow fewer claims
- Confirmed
A Russian frigate fired two flares toward a Danish military helicopter near Gedser on September 14.
- Confirmed
One flare passed close to the aircraft; no crew were injured and the helicopter was not damaged.
- Confirmed
Denmark summoned Russia's ambassador following the incident.
- Confirmed
This is the first incident of its kind involving Denmark.
- Confirmed
The Russian vessel involved has been identified.
- Confirmed
Russia accuses Danish helicopters of dangerous manoeuvres near its warships.
- Confirmed
Russia handed Denmark a formal diplomatic note complaining about the helicopter encounters.
- Confirmed
Russia is investigating the incident.
- Confirmed
NATO called the flare firing an irresponsible act by Russia.
- Confirmed
One flare passed within a matter of metres of the helicopter.
- Confirmed
Denmark is speeding up a planned military aid package to Ukraine in direct response to the flare incident.
- Confirmed
Russia has formally decorated the commander of the corvette Soobrazitelny for the incident.
- Confirmed
The Russian vessel involved was the corvette Soobrazitelny.
- Confirmed
The Danish helicopter was a Royal Danish Air Force AS550 Fennec conducting routine photographic identification.
- Confirmed
Russia claims the Danish helicopter did not respond to calls on international channels.
- Confirmed
Denmark has delivered a military aid package to Ukraine worth 1.8 billion kroner in response to the flare incident.
- Confirmed
The aid package was both accelerated in timing and increased in value following the flare incident.
- Confirmed
Danish intelligence expects Russia to escalate hybrid warfare against NATO in the coming months.
- Confirmed
NATO's top commander has described increased intelligence sharing among allies in response to Russian activity.
What we still don't know
- What specific military equipment or capabilities the 1.8 billion kroner Ukrainian aid package includes
- Whether the decoration of the Soobrazitelny commander represents a broader policy shift in how Russia rewards confrontational actions against NATO
- Whether Denmark or other NATO members will release radio logs, video, or radar data to support their version of events
- Whether NATO will take any collective action beyond verbal condemnation and increased intelligence sharing
- What Russia's investigation concluded, and whether those findings align with the decision to decorate the commander
- Whether this incident will change Danish or NATO surveillance protocols in the Baltic
- What specific intelligence or indicators led Danish defence intelligence to predict escalating hybrid warfare
- What forms of hybrid warfare escalation Danish intelligence anticipates
- What specific actions NATO is taking beyond increased intelligence sharing in response to the assessment
Russian pressure in the Baltic
- Russian frigate fires flares toward Danish helicopter
- Russia rejects Danish account, accuses helicopter of "dangerous manoeuvres"
- Denmark accelerates Ukraine aid package in response to flare incident; Russia decorates ship commander
- Denmark delivers €240m Ukraine aid package in direct response to Baltic flare incident
- Denmark says Russian flare passed 10–15 meters from helicopter
- Danish intelligence warns Russia could pose threat to NATO within two years, assesses low but growing risk of limited military attack
- Russia warns NATO of nuclear response over Kaliningrad, dismisses hybrid warfare claims as European intelligence services assess intensifying pressure
- Kallas warns Russian hybrid attacks now putting lives at risk as NATO calls for end to nuclear threats
- Kallas warns Russia putting lives at risk with spike in hybrid attacks across Europe, as Moscow repeats nuclear threats over Kaliningrad
Sources analysed
7 outlets in the analysed roster.
- Reuters — Denmark expects Russia to escalate hybrid warfare in coming months
- Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark — Denmark announces new military donation package for Ukraine
- The Kyiv Independent — Denmark warns Russia could escalate hybrid attacks against NATO in coming months
- The Guardian — Denmark warns that Russia expected to escalate hybrid warfare
- Kyiv Post — NATO’s Top Commander Says Intelligence-Sharing Stepped Up as Denmark Warns of Limited Russian Attack
- International Business Times UK — NATO on High Alert as Danish Intel Claims Russia Could Hit Neighbouring Nations Soon
- The Copenhagen Post — Danish intelligence service warns Russia may intensify hybrid attacks against West and NATO